Mueller: What really matters in Brandon Aiyuk's contract negotiations with the 49ers (2024)

Deadlines spur action.

We hear this often when it comes to NFL contract negotiations, and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s quest for a new deal provides yet another example: There has been no deadline, and thus very little action, despite plenty of reports, opinions and public chatter.

Teams tend to hunker down on their position based on facts that might make sense only to them. A player and his representation will almost always make their case based on a totally different set of facts. When timing is not of the essence, it’s easy to ask for the moon. Until one side has something to lose, demands can be wide-ranging or easily dismissed.

But the closer we get to training camp in late July, negotiations will cut to the chase. Having been the point man in many similar negotiations over the years, I know that threading the needle takes time, patience and people skills … and maybe a life preserver at the end to close the deal. Let’s take a closer look at the factors at play here.

The market

The wide receiver market has exploded over the last few months, and by no means are we done. Many of the best receivers have already been rewarded, but several more are on deck. Where does Aiyuk fit in? Well, that probably depends on whom you ask.

Here are the five largest contracts right now by average per year. All but one (Tyreek Hill’s) have been signed since April.

• Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings — $35 million
• A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles — $32 million
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions — $30.003 million
• Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins — $30 million
• Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins — $28.3 million

Average per year (APY) is the most popular metric to compare deals, but there are many other elements to consider, including signing bonus, guaranteed money, length of the deal and the player’s market value. The egos of the parties involved also affect negotiating dynamics. But all of these things are derivatives of one larger factor: leverage. More on that later.

Most good negotiations come with both sides walking away with some semblance of a win. St. Brown’s four-year, $120.01 million deal with the Lions was a great example. He got an unusually high APY for his skill set (he has not produced big plays like others in this range have), but just $34.7 million, or 28.9 percent of the deal, was fully guaranteed. Jefferson’s four-year, $140 million deal with the Vikings included $88.7 million fully guaranteed (63.4 percent), clearly on another level.

Teams will pay only what they have to. Seldom do you see what happened in Minnesota, where both sides clearly agreed Jefferson is the NFL’s best receiver and would reset the market, making it fair for both. Most deals include some disagreement over the player’s worth.

Given Aiyuk’s skill set, where does he fit? Compared to those who have already been paid, I believe his traits are closer to Jefferson than the others. Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb, who are also looking for new contracts, are slightly more accomplished than Aiyuk but have benefited from more receiver-centric offenses. Both are waiting for Aiyuk’s deal to set the floor for theirs.

Aiyuk is strong and plays bigger than he measures, which is very important at his position, as he consistently makes contested catches. He can separate with suddenness or with body control, which he uses to vary his speed as a route runner much like Puka Nacua does for the Los Angeles Rams. He had 75 catches on 105 targets in 2023, but usage varies depending on the scheme and play caller — Jefferson had 100 targets in only 10 games, and most of the other receivers we mentioned had at least 140 targets — so you can’t just go by the numbers.

Public perception doesn’t mean pressure

Aiyuk’s contract situation has been a hot topic publicly since the week after the Super Bowl, with a steady stream of media reports, rumors and social media chatter. That includes chatter from Aiyuk himself. Last week, in a video posted on his TikTok account, he told Commanders quarterback and former Arizona State teammate Jayden Daniels, “They said they don’t want me back. I swear.”

Be careful how you interpret what is said publicly. Aiyuk knows what he’s doing. Many in the media also have an agenda, seeking to create suspense or intrigue. Some have said San Francisco has botched the negotiation, while others argue the Niners will have to release other players to make room for an Aiyuk contract. Allocating resources under the NFL’s salary cap can be tricky, but much of these proclamations are misguided. The point is that public posturing does nothing to change the facts from the team’s standpoint.

Teams often take the high road in these situations. You never want to disrespect a player or his representation, which is why teams rarely comment on contractual negotiations or details. Sometimes players can make it hard for the team to bite its lip, but it’s necessary.

Yes, Aiyuk’s name has been in trade rumors over the past couple of months. That narrative is someone throwing mud at the wall — chances of it sticking are remote, at best. Aiyuk is not getting traded. He’s the 49ers’ best wide receiver, and trading him would make them a worse team, no matter what draft choices they would receive in return. It just doesn’t make sense.

Leverage

Aiyuk has the short straw. He has a contract for 2024 that will pay him $14.1 million, and under the current CBA, holding out of training camp is not a viable option. If the 49ers wanted to play hardball, they could make Aiyuk play for that and then franchise-tag him for 2025. The tag for wide receivers (which the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins received this offseason) is worth $21.8 million in 2024. It is projected to rise near $25 million in 2025, which would put Aiyuk around $39 million over the next two years.

I’m not suggesting the 49ers should play hardball, but they could if they wanted to. That’s leverage. Obviously, Aiyuk’s representation knows this.

Aiyuk’s latest message to the masses — that the 49ers don’t want him — is partially true: They don’t want him at his price. But I can assure you they want him on their team. I give Aiyuk and his team credit for trying to play any card possible.

If he really wanted to create leverage for the long haul, he’d wait and let Lamb and Chase sign new deals, and his market would only rise. In that scenario, Aiyuk might get north of $34 million annually. But that would come with the risk of playing for $14 million this year and $25 million in 2025, without any long-term guarantees. His goal is to get paid now and have multiple years of security immediately.

The fly in the ointment for the 49ers is St. Brown’s contract. Most in the NFL would consider Aiyuk a better all-around player than St. Brown, whose deal caused much back-channel conversation within the league. That’s the one bit of leverage Aiyuk has that might have some traction with the 49ers’ brass. Because of that deal alone, they might have to go to $31 million per year.

Even so, they have the leverage. It’s just a matter of how much they want to use it.

Options

To reinforce their leverage, the 49ers have given themselves options. The worst deals I made as a general manager came when we had no options at a given position. That’s not the case for the Niners, who have smartly covered themselves at wide receiver.

They have Deebo Samuel under contract at $23.8 million per year and doubled down by drafting Florida’s Ricky Pearsall in the first round. Pearsall’s security in San Francisco is clear. But Samuel? Not so much. In the 49ers’ offensive hierarchy, his playmaking skills with the ball are second only to running back Christian McCaffrey, but as a receiver, he might be their third- or fourth-best option in 2024, depending on whom you ask.

The Niners also extended wideout Jauan Jennings to a modest but solid deal. He served mostly as their third receiverlast year but had nice production.

Don’t get me wrong: I am not suggesting moving on from a very good player in Aiyuk. They have nobody equal to him at the position. But in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, they have some versatile personnel, so they are not desperate to get Aiyuk signed right now.

Bottom line

It’s very difficult as a GM to navigate the contract waters of a talented, good-but-not-great player while weighing market value against the player’s value to your team.

In this case, I don’t think Aiyuk’s camp is looking to reset the market. The key factor is that he is already under contract, which will have a direct effect on how hard his representation can push. His rebuttal is twofold: He’s 26, and his big-play ability (he averaged 17.9 yards per catch and had 41 gains of 15-plus yards in 2023) compares favorably to St. Brown.

Ultimately, I expect Aiyuk would sign for around $30 million to $32 million annually with about $50 million fully guaranteed. That would give him something to hang his hat on. The question then becomes: Do the 49ers value him that much more than their other options, even if that cost is a bit more than what they had budgeted?

I think a deal will get done before camp starts, when time is of the essence. Then, Aiyuk can make sure to put St. Brown on his holiday card list, and the 49ers can move on to their next problem — what to do with Samuel — maybe even before the season starts. Remember: It’s all about options.

(Photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Randy Mueller spent 35 years in the NFL at all levels of football operations, from ballboy to general manager. A former NFL Executive of the Year, he joined The Athletic's NFL staff in 2023 as an expert on player talent evaluation and team roster building. He also co-hosts "The Football GM Podcast" on The Athletic Football Show. Follow Randy on Twitter @RandyMueller_