New-car prices skyrocketed over the past three years, but sales are still up, especially for these models and automakers
Author of the article:
Timothy Cain
Published Jun 26, 2024 • Last updated 4days ago • 6 minute read
The Canadian auto industry’s kick-start to 2024 was, in a word, acceptable. Potential car buyers are facing high prices and high interest rates while dealing with rising costs in other aspects of life. Yet despite those headwinds, auto sales still managed to climb 14%, year-over-year.
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Canada's 10 hottest auto brands, vehicles at the start of 2024 Back to video
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Based largely on the fact that there remains pent-up demand following a three-year period in which auto sales were constrained by a pandemic and supply-chain crisis, there are plenty of automakers that are just now returning to traditional levels.
Or surpassing them.
While used-car prices have softened (marginally), new-vehicle prices are still substantially higher than they were a year ago. According to AutoTrader’s Price Index, the average price of a new vehicle was 7.4% higher in 2024’s first quarter than during the same period a year earlier, and down only ever-so-slightly from September 2023’s peak.
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2024 Subaru Forester 3.00out of 5 MSRP $31,995 to $42,595
In many showrooms, buyers are simply undeterred by uncomfortably high MSRPs. The Subaru Crosstrek, for example, posted a record first quarter (including best-ever individual monthly results for January, February, and March) in spite of a base price that’s 22% higher than it was only three years ago.
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Meanwhile, the base price of an all-wheel-drive version of Canada’s best-selling non-pickup, the Toyota RAV4, rose only 7% between 2006 and 2021 – a 15-year span – and then jumped 8% over the course of the following three years. The result? RAV4 sales are now hotter than ever.
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Whether manufacturers can sustain this level of demand with prices this high will, as always, continue to be a story of supply and demand. As supply constraints decrease and inventory accumulates, automakers will succumb to their competitive nature and suffer one of two outcomes: either sales will decrease as buyers look elsewhere; or prices will fall in order to maintain sales momentum.
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For the time being, at least in the early stages of 2024, many brands and individual models have seen remarkable growth relative to the disappointment of early 2023. We’re highlighting the five highest jumps for auto brands (excluding brands that sell fewer than 1,000 units per month) and individual models (excluding vehicles that sell fewer than 500 units per month.)
These are the hottest auto brands and vehicles in Canada through during the first-quarter of 2024.
5. Nissan Rogue, up 89% to 11,197
In rapidly rebounding Nissan showrooms, the Rogue sets the tone with year-over-year growth doubling that of the overall brand. Of course, this isn’t purely indicative of a surge in demand — Rogue supply was depressed and is no longer. But there’s no denying popularity plays a role. The Rogue is Canada’s third-best-selling utility vehicle, nearly 3,400 sales clear of the fourth-ranked Hyundai Kona.
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4. Toyota Corolla Cross, up 102% to 3,735
A segment below the uber-popular RAV4, Toyota’s Corolla Cross churned out twice as many sales in early 2024 than during the same period of 2023. For Toyota, the bigger factor isn’t necessarily how the Corolla Cross compares with its competitors – it’s Canada’s sixth-best-selling subcompact utility – but rather how it outperforms its predecessor, the C-HR. The C-HR’s best-ever first-quarter produced only 1,553 units. The Corolla Cross tops that by a 141% margin.
3. Honda CR-V, up 114% to 12,606
The Toyota RAV4 is in no danger of being caught by the second-ranked Honda CR-V. Through only three months, the RAV4 has already constructed a 7,791-unit advantage. The CR-V is, however, bouncing back from Honda’s pandemic struggles at a breakneck pace. First-quarter sales jumped by more than 6,700 units. The CR-V is currently outselling Honda’s other trio of utility vehicles by more than two-to-one.
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2. Subaru Crosstrek, up 147% to 7,091
The Subaru Crosstrek has come a long way from its genesis as an Impreza byproduct. When launched as the XV Crosstrek, Subaru sold only 6,120 units in the entirety of its first full year on the market, 2013. In 2024, with nine months of results yet to be tabulated, the Crosstrek has already topped that result by 971 units.
1. Subaru Forester, up 160% to 4,442
From a disastrous 1,708 units in the first-quarter of supply-constrained 2023, Subaru’s Forester jumped 160% to 4,442 units in 2024’s first three months. Due to the abnormal weakness of 2023, the 160% increase is somewhat misleading — after all, Subaru typically sells 2,300 Foresters in the opening quarter of the year. But even compared with more typical results, Forester sales this year are 93% above normal levels.
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5. Toyota, up 36% to 50,722
Though still not available in abundance – good luck finding a RAV4 Prime to buy at any point in the near future – demand for Toyota’s enormous lineup is predictably strong. In the early stages of the pandemic’s supply chain crunch, Toyota (along with most Japanese import brands) fell hard and fast. Across the industry, when sales slipped 12% between the fourth quarter of 2021 and third quarter of 2022, Toyota was down 17%, including a 23% decline in the summer of 2022. But only a fool bets against Toyota, which is now outpacing the industry’s first-quarter growth by 22 points.
4. Nissan, up 49% to 28,048
Boosted by the enormous success of the fast-growing Rogue and a boatload of Qashqai registrations (at the end of its tenure) Nissan’s 49% year-over-year jump translates to 9,206 extra units. Nissan was deeply wounded with the supply chain crunch of the last few years, but 2024’s first-quarter effort of 28,048 vehicles is only 607 units shy of 2019’s pre-pandemic Q1 result.
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3. Volkswagen, up 59% to 17,482
Volkswagen is the only non-Japanese brand on the list thanks to surging sales of every single member of the brand’s Canadian lineup: Atlas, Tiguan, Taos, Golf GTI and Golf R, Jetta, and electric ID.4. To be fair, Volkswagen’s 17,482 units appear especially strong due to the fact that 2023’s first quarter was so weak — the 9,398 Volkswagen sold at this stage last year represented a 32% drop from 2019’s first quarter.
But the 424% surge in Golf sales, the 37% Jetta uptick, 20% Atlas increase, 54% Taos bump, 42% Tiguan growth, and the 114% ID.4 gain are noteworthy regardless.
2. Honda, up 70% to 27,579
Is Honda back? Well, not quite, but the brand has made huge progress back toward normal sales volume. First-quarter Honda Canada sales results averaged just under 35,000 units in the five pre-pandemic years — Honda’s still off that pace by 20%. Honda is, however, returning far greater levels of supply to dealers, which consequently translated to a 66% Q1 increase in Civic sales, a 114% jump in CR-V sales, and major improvements for the HR-V, Pilot, and Ridgeline, as well.
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1. Subaru, up 86% to 17,723
It should come as no surprise that Canada’s two fastest-growing models are sold by Canada’s fastest-growing brand. Subaru isn’t just excelling with the Crosstrek and Forester, both of which set Q1 records. Outback volume is up 35%, year-over-year, and the electric Solterra posted a 79% increase. Each of 2024’s first three months represented best-ever results for the period: 5,675 sales in January; 5,602 more in February; and 6,446 in March.
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Timothy Cain
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